NOAA: Don’t Count On El Niño To Bring Drought Relief In California
It's less likely an El Niño event will bring rain to parched California farms next fall or winter.The forecast released Thursday from the Climate Prediction Center (National National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) said the chance of El Niño is about 70 percent during the Northern Hemisphere this summer and is close to 80 percent during the fall and early winter.But Michelle Mead, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sacramento said the chance of a strong El Niño is not favored and forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter.She said for Northern California and the San Joaquin Valley, the best estimate is for a weak to moderate event. Mead said there is little correlation between weak-to-moderate El Niño events and above-normal rainfall."El Niño right now is not looking like a slam dunk as far as helping us with our drought scenario," said Mead.Mead said if there is a strong El Niño it would means an increased chance of rain for California, but mostly for Southern California. But she said, even that is unlikely."The latest forecast ensemble models are actually indicating that the type of El Niño that could develop would be weak to slightly moderate and there's no guarantee that Southern California will see increased precipitation," said Mead.
"El Niño only means potential for at or above normal precipitation and we are so far behind in precipitation that even if we get normal amounts for next year it would not end the drought,” said Mead.But she said flooding can happen very quickly, even during drought.“You can actually have a drought scenario where one or two strong Pacific storms move in and small creeks and streams can rise quickly,” said Mead. “There won’t be a big influx of moisture and people should continue to conserve water.”The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the date line and 120oW), according to NOAA.El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific warm episode.NOAA said the term originally referred to an annual warming of sea-surface temperatures along the west coast of tropical South America.El Niño events can bring flooding to some countries and drought to other countries.
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Study: California Drought Most Severe Dry Spell in at least 1,200 Years
California’s current drought is pretty exceptional — like the driest in about a millennium — according to an article published today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters by scientists with the University of Minnesota and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts.But how could they know that? There weren’t a lot of rain gauges in California in 800 A.D. — at least, not the plastic kind.So authors Daniel Griffin and Kevin Anchukaitis looked to tree-ring samples from California blue oaks.“California’s old blue oaks are as close to nature’s rain gauges as we get,” said Griffin, a NOAA Climate and Global Change Fellow with Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. “They thrive in some of California’s driest environments.”The researchers collected their own blue oak tree-ring samples from south and central California, giving them a pretty good idea of yearly precipitation in the area back to 1293. They then augmented their samples with data from the North American Drought Atlas and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Palmer Drought Severity Index.The result: The study estimates that in the past 1,200 years, there have been 66 dry periods lasting three-to-nine years and 37 more-severe, three-year droughts. But not one of them has been as extreme as the one beginning in 2012, despite some years in the past seeing similarly low precipitation.It’s not only lack of rain that makes a drought, though. Record-high temperatures added to California’s strife to make this dry spell the worst in more than 1,000 years, according to the study. The researchers estimate high temperatures have intensified the drought by about 36 percent.UC Berkeley geology professor and researcher Lynn Ingram said the study’s findings appear solid.“The tree-ring records provide the highest resolution as they have annual growth layers,” she said, adding the study provides a “cautionary lesson” about how human-caused warming “may already be impacting climate and water in California.”Watch the California drought progress from the beginning of 2011 to the end of 2014 below. The NOAA U.S. Drought Monitor released the latest outlook today, up-to-date as of Dec. 2. More than half the state is now in “exceptional drought,” defined as “exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells creating water emergencies.”
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Monterey historic boat could get new purpose
Built by Sicilian born boatbuilder Angelo Siinno in Monterey around 1927-1930, the General Pershing may be repurposed into a classroom on the bay. David Royal — Monterey Herald
The Siino family has contributed a lot to the history of Monterey and their latest idea could give back even more.They said this week they are aiming to turn the largest boat Sicilian-born Angelo Siino, one of Monterey’s most famous shipbuilders, ever crafted into an educational tool.The General Pershing boat is roughly 60 feet long, 15 feet wide and was built around 1927 at Monterey Boatworks and used to film “Captains Courageous” in 1937 and other films. It is still seaworthy.“Our goal is to make it back to being useful for the heritage of Monterey. We’re calling it Classroom on the Bay. We want it to be a teaching vessel,” said Siino’s granddaughter, Janet Martinez, 68, of Aromas.Martinez said they need help restoring the lampara boat, which she estimates could reach up to $150,000. They have been repainting it for the last three weeks.She said they hope to partner with a nonprofit or get grants to accomplish their vision.In the meantime, she has written a book called “Master Boat Builders of Italy.” Revenue from sales will be used for the project.Given the boat was built during the heyday of the sardine industry, she said students could be taught the history of Monterey aboard, as well as modern classes about the ecology of the Bay.Angelo Siino moved to the United States from Sicily in 1903 and to Monterey in 1914. He died in 1956.He built 15 boats from scratch and did it without blueprints, Martinez said.“To this day, I don’t know how they did it,” she said.He taught his craft to sons, Raymond and Frank, who became celebrated ship builders.The General’s original owner was Neno DiMaggio, cousin to baseball legend Joe DiMaggio, who named it after Gen. John J. “Black Jack” Pershing, the World War I figure under whom Neno DiMaggio served.It eventually ended up in San Francisco under the ownership of fisherman Frank Watada. He gave it back to the Siino family in 2003.The General hit the news in 2008 when a colony of seabirds called Brand’s cormorant took up residence on it and required U.S. Fish and Wildlife biologists to get them out.Martinez can be found at Boatworks most days painting the boat but can also be reached at mmpublishing@gmail.com.
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Above-normal rainfall now predicted
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting our area to experience above-average rainfall this season. (Photo: Provided/NOAA)
By the end of this week, be sure to start battening down the hatches.Weather officials on Monday updated a rain outlook for the month of December, saying now that there will be above-normal rainfall moving toward the New Year that will have a significant effect on the drought outlook.Logan Johnson, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Monterey, said above-normal precipitation is expected across the entire state during December, and that for central and southern California, the wet stuff is likely to keep coming throughout the rainy season, which runs through February.“This very welcome news and should improve drought conditions statewide,” Johnson said.In fact, according to Rich Tinker of the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the above-normal rainfall this season is knocking the Central Coast down a notch on the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook.Up until Friday, the majority of California was listed as an area where “drought persists or intensifies.” Now, because of soppy month ahead, the Central Coast and most of the rest of the state is listed as “drought remains but improves.” Temperatures, however, are expected to remain warmer than normal, which will further support this year as one of the warmest on record.Forecasters say the above-normal precipitation headed this way during the rainy season should not be thought of as any kind of drought-buster. The region has experienced too many years of drought for it to end in one above-average year; it would take several above-average years to get the area back to normal.The early part of this week is forecast for sunny autumn weather, but a high-pressure ridge is expected to break down on Friday, allowing a rain front to move into Northern California that will work its way south by Saturday.“There remains uncertainty with regards to exact timing and amount of rainfall expected with this frontal passage,” according to a statement issued early Monday afternoon by the NWS.A rain-friendly, upper-level, low-pressure system will move into the Bay Area Sunday and Monday bringing with it widespread rain, the NWS predicts, but ends with a cautionary note that the amount of rain cannot be accurately predicted since the forecast is projected out five to eight days.“However, there is increasing confidence that the [San Francisco/Monterey] region will enter into a wet period that will last into early next week,” the NWS said Monday.
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Commercial Dungeness Crab Season Opens Dec. 1 in Northern California
Prior to the season opening, commercial fishermen are allowed a 64-hour gear setting period. This year, crab trap gear can be set no earlier than 8 a.m. on Friday, Nov. 28.
Kayakers Blown Out to Sea Rescued by Squid-Fishing Boats
High winds blew six kayakers out to sea, where squid-fishing boats and lifeguards on Jetskis rescued them
Six kayakers were blown a mile out to sea, and rescued by squid fishing boat crews, as 50-mile-per-hour Santa Ana winds cropped up suddenly in Malibu Sunday.Sustained winds of 47 miles per hour, and a gust of 81 mph, were recorded in the hills above Malibu Sunday, as the six kayakers were blown south.A large fleet of squid-fishing boats from Port Hueneme had been clustered near Point Mugu, taking advantage of ocean currents that concentrate squid there.At least two of the kayaks were snared by the squid fleet to prevent them from being blown further out to sea. Lifeguards then used "Jetski"-type watercraft to tow the kayaks back to shore at about 9 a.m.The rescue was a joint operation of lifeguards from Ventura and Los Angeles counties, and California State Parks.Paramedics examined the kayakers at Countyline Beach and pronounced them fine. Lifeguards said the people had been fishing just west of the Los Angeles-Ventura county line.Winds had been calm in western Malibu at 7 a.m., but were blowing at up to 50 miles per hour at Leo Carrillo Beach, straight out to sea, when the rescue occurred.In Malibu, power lines were reported down on Latigo Canyon Road, one mile uphill from Pacific Coast Highway. Traffic was getting through in the area, a deputy said, and no fire was reported."When the winds are blowing offshore, it's a bad time to kayak," observed LA County Lifeguards Capt. Dan Murphy. "Make sure to have a signal device, and a personal flotation device."Earlier in the day, four paddleboarders were reported in distress to LA County lifeguards at around 11:30 a.m.They were out in sustained 45 mph winds that stopped them from paddling back to shore, so the Malibu watch boat picked them up.The hurricane-force, 81 mph wind gust was reported at a Mesonet weather station operated by a homeowner near Saddle Peak, at the 1,500 foot elevation. It was reported on the National Weather Service website at 10:15 a.m. That was not an official NWS reading, however.Along the beach, palm fronds, eucalyptus branches and tumbleweeds were observed blowing across PCH at 8 a.m.
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San Francisco can't keep up with bonanza Dungeness crab catch
SAN FRANCISCOIf you are hoping to eat crab on Thanksgiving, you'll love this. Crab boats are coming back absolutely loaded to the gills. The only downside is that huge catch is creating a few challenges.Pier 45 has been dealing with a bottleneck of boats trying to deliver their catch. Several boats are still parked in the bay waiting to deliver their catch and head back out to fish. That means the dock workers will be working past midnight for the fourth day in a row.Since the beginning of the commercial crab season began on Saturday, an estimated 400 boats have been delivering a steady stream of crab to Pier 45."We stayed until 2 or 3 last night," president of the Crab Boat Association Larry Collins said. When we asked him how much sleep he got, he replied, "Not much."Many boats have been parked in the bay waiting to deliver. Crews are pumping in oxygen to keep their catch alive."We just don't have the facilities here to unload any more than we are," skipper Dan Hunt said. He explained in the meantime, "We just sit on crab. Pump on them, keep them alive until the market can take them.""It doesn't look like there's much crab in Eureka, Crescent City or Brookings, so everybody and their brother came down for this opener," Collins said.Skipper Brian Kelley and his crew, from Fort Brag hauled in 30,000 pounds in the first three days. This all amounts to plenty of overtime pay for Juan Cornejo who straps rubber bands around the claws of the Dungeness crabs and gets his share of pinches. He said it happens twice a day.The crabbers are getting $3 a pound and by the time it's shipped, boiled, cracked and put on your plate at the restaurant, the price is about $10.95 a pound."Yeah, a lot of good crab this year. It's all 2.5 pounds or bigger. Usually, they're about a pound and a half to two," C.J. Green form Alioto's restaurant said.Eventually, the crab harvest will thin out and the price will claw its way up. But until then, crab lovers are being encouraged to come and get it.
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Dungeness crab fishery opens on Central California Coast, hundreds of boats participate
""We're guardedly optimistic," said Zeke Grader executive director of the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen's Association."We could very well be looking at year records for this time of year, but that doesn't mean there's necessarily more crab than in previous years, it just means more crab has been harvested earlier."Each year vessels in the northern zones of California and Oregon have to make a decision whether to participate in the early Bay Area fishery that opens November 15th, or wait until the regular season opens in the Northern sections, which usually is around December 1st, but can be delayed by slow growth of the crabs.Any vessel fishing in the southern zone has to wait 30 days after the northern seasons open before itr can return to fish in the northern areas.This year, most boats from Crescent city in Northern California set out to fish the Bay area, based on reports of abundant crabs, and the recent facts that the central area has landed more crab than the north.Last year, the northern area landed about 6.68 million lbs, while the southern area landed 10.41 million lbs. This is different than the historical average, where landings are generally higher in the north.In Northern California, Oregon and Washington, the opening is determined by when a test fishery operated by the three states shows the crabs have sufficient meat fill, above 25%. This year, the tests are being done as late as possible.Anecdotal reports from some of the sport fisheries suggest the crabs have good meat fill, and that the season may open on December 1st.Tests for Eureka and Crescent city should be available later this week.Between 2013 and 2014, dungeness landings coast wide fell about 28%. The shortfall, combined with strong live market demand from china, has led to consistently high dungeness prices over the past year.
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