Why the ocean water along the Central Coast turned cold
A school of Pacific sardines, which provide an important part of the ocean food chain. John Lindsey
As most beachgoers will tell you, the seawater temperatures along the Central Coast have turned downright cold.In fact, the harbor seals and sea lions seem to want to spend more time on the rocks and beaches. My children, Chloe and Sean, are using thicker wetsuits.So why is the seawater so cold?
Strong to gale-force northwesterly winds have produced greater amounts of upwelling along the coastline.As the northwesterly winds blow parallel to our coastline, the friction of the wind causes ocean surface water to move. Because of the Coriolis effect, the surface water flows to the right, or offshore.This, in turn, causes upwelling along the coast as cold, clear and nutrient-rich water rises to the surface along the immediate shoreline.Farther away, another factor may help to keep seawater temperatures at normal or below normal: It’s called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The latest surface seawater temperature (SST) data from the central equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean called Niño 3.4 indicates this past “Godzilla” El Niño has died. Region 3.4 is the standard for classifying El Niño (warmer-than-normal SST) and La Niña (cooler-than-normal SST) events. The fortunetelling SST cycles in Niño 3.4 are categorized by the amount they deviate from the average SST. In other words, an anomaly.A weak El Niño is classified as an SST anomaly between 0.5 and 0.9 degrees Celsius, a moderate El Niño is an anomaly of 1.0 to 1.4 degrees Celsius and a strong El Niño ranges from 1.5 to 1.9 degrees Celsius. A very strong El Niño anomaly is anything above 2.0 degrees Celsius (or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a very rare event indeed.Last winter’s temperatures reached a little over 3 degrees Celsius, one of the strongest on record.William Patzert, a respected climatologist with Caltech’s NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, said, “Unfortunately, its effects weren’t as great as the 1997-98 El Niño. That cycle produced huge amounts of rain and snow. This year’s El Niño was no Godzilla, more of a gecko as far as impacts were concerned along the Central Coast.”For reasons we really don’t understand, pressure areas change places at irregular intervals over the equatorial Pacific. This is part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern.During a La Niña phase, high pressure builds in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while low pressure develops to the west, producing a stronger equatorial pressure gradient. Almost like a car rolling downhill, the easterly trade winds strengthen, causing upwelling off the coastlines of Peru and Ecuador and lowering sea surface temperatures throughout the eastern Pacific Ocean.The latest model runs from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service indicate that we will go into a La Niña cycle by July and remain in this cycle through early 2017.The good news is that upwelling brings nutrients to the surface waters off the coast, allowing fish populations living in these waters to thrive. The bad news is this condition often shifts the storm track farther north into the Pacific Northwest, leaving the Central Coast high and dry with below-average rainfall.However, there have been periods of heavy rain during neutral conditions (“El Nothing”) and La Niña cycles. An atmospheric river (Pineapple Express) could develop over the Central Coast during winter and produce copious amounts of rain along the Central Coast, regardless of ENSO.Otherwise, chances are, we will probably see another year of below-average rainfall. Only time will tell the story.
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Study Finds Growing Numbers of Octopuses, Squids in World's Oceans
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Copyright © 2016 Seafoodnews.com
SEAFOODNEWS.COM [Newsweek] By Douglas Main - May24, 2016The global population of cephalopods—a group of animals that includes octopus, squid and cuttlefish—has been slowly but steadily growing for more than 50 years, new research shows.The growth of these populations may be due in part to increasing temperatures, says Bronwyn Gillanders, a researcher at the University of Adelaide in Australia. Warmer waters allow some cephalopods to grow more quickly, get bigger and live longer, she says.For example, Humboldt squid, (Dosidicus gigas), also known as jumbo squid, have increased in size and may live twice as long now than they did decades ago, a trend which scientists think is due to warmer water temperatures caused by the El Niño climate oscillation. Prior to the late 1990s, fisherman in South America sought jumbo squid that generally reached weights of four pounds. But since that time, there are many more large Humboldt squid, which can weigh more than 80 pounds, Gillanders says, and those can live two years as opposed to one year, as they used to.The increase in world cephalopod populations may also be due to the decline in some fish species that prey upon the creatures, says Gillanders, lead author of a study describing the finding, published May 23 in the journal Current Biology.It’s unclear exactly what effects this may be having in different areas of the ocean, and whether or not these effects are positive or negative. On the one hand, the animals are “are voracious predators and could impact many prey species,” Gillanders says. But “increases in cephalopod abundance may benefit marine predators which are reliant on them for food, as well as humans” who fish and eat them, she adds.Most cephalopods are also cannibals, so it’s possible the cannibalism may help check further increases in growth, Gillanders adds.Ocean acidification, which is caused by the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, may hurt cephalopods, but research is just beginning to address this topic, she says.
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NOAA: Dungeness crab in peril from acidification
As levels of carbon dioxide rise in the atmosphere due to fossil fuel burning and other human-caused pollution, it changes water chemistry, hurting survival of crab larvae.The Dungeness crab fishery could decline West Coastwide, a new study has found, threatening a fishing industry worth nearly a quarter-billion dollars a year.Scientists at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle found that pH levels likely in West Coast waters by 2100 at current rates of greenhouse-gas pollution would hurt the survivability of crab larvae.Increasing ocean acidification is predicted to harm a wide range of sea life unable to properly form calcium carbonate shells as the pH drops. Now scientists at the NOAA’s Northwest Fishery Science Center of Seattle also have learned that animals with chitin shells — specifically Dungeness crabs — are affected, because the change in water chemistry affects their metabolism.Carbon dioxide, a potent greenhouse gas, is pumped into the atmosphere primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. Levels of atmospheric C02 have been steadily rising since the Industrial Revolution in 1750 and today are higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years — and predicted to go higher.
When carbon dioxide mixes with ocean water it lowers the pH. By simulating the conditions in tanks of seawater at pH levels likely to occur in West Coast waters with rising greenhouse gas pollution, scientists were able to detect both a slower hatch of crab larvae, and poorer survival by the year 2100.That in turn likely would cause a decline in the population of a fishery that is of economic importance to tribal and nontribal fishers alike. The total value of the 2014 Dungeness crab catch in Alaska, California, Oregon and Washington was $211.5 million, according to data provided by NOAA fisheries.The crab fishery is of great cultural importance, too, a birthright of tribal and nontribal Northwest residents for whom fresh-caught Dungeness crab defines part of what it means to live here.Crab larvae also are an important food source for a wide range of sea life, including salmon.Dungeness crab, Cancer magister, is a denizen of coastal and Puget Sound waters. Adults occur in the inshore waters where pH today in summer can be as high as 7.6, but in the future, are predicted to lower to 7.1.Using eggs and larvae from females captured in Puget Sound, scientists determined the hatching success, larval survival and larval development rate at three pH levels: 8.0, 7.5 and 7.1Three to four times more larvae survived in higher pH than the lower pH tanks. Those larvae also were slower to hatch, said Paul McElhany, a research ecologist at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center and senior author of the paper, published online in the scientific journal Marine Biology last month.While the eggs studied were taken from crabs collected in Puget Sound, “There’s no reason to suspect coastal crabs would respond differently,” McElhany said.His lab is continuing to examine effects of acidifying seas on other living things. Next up are salmon, where he wants to learn if acidification affects olfactory capacities, potentially damaging the ability to navigate to their home waters.Other fish species have been found to be harmed by acidifying waters, including clown fish, which mistake predators for prey as pH plummets.While effects predicted in the research are forecast for the year 2100, levels of acidification could plunge lower sooner, depending on whether levels of greenhouse-gas pollution are brought under control.“There is some uncertainty about when we reach these levels,” McElhany said.
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Monterey Bay squid season basically a bust
open letter to the reporter:
Monterey Fish Company president Sal Tringali looks over the fresh fish display at his store on Monterey Municipal Wharf No. 2 on Wednesday. Tringali oversees a five-boat fleet that provides local restaurants with most of their fresh seafood, including squid. Vern Fisher — Monterey Herald
Monterey >> If Monterey had a signature restaurant dish, cioppino and fried calamari would battle it out for the top spot. But the common ingredient in each is squid, those prehistoric looking cephalopods (scientific name loligo) that school in the cool, nutrient-rich waters of Monterey Bay.
In August a worldwide television audience tuned in for “Big Blue Live,” a BBC-PBS production that showcased our marine sanctuary teeming with sea life, from tiny shrimp to giant blue whales.
Then “the boy” arrived.
“Once El Niño showed up things started to look different in the bay,” said Sal Tringali, president of Monterey Fish Company, who oversees a five-boat fleet that provides local restaurants with most of their fresh seafood, including squid.
Not to panic; our shared “Serengeti of the Sea” is still a pristine habitat. But warming waters along the West Coast have changed the waterscape — at least for now. For example, local squid fishermen have turned out their bright boat lights because the season is basically a bust.
“There’s no squid,” said Tringali. “No anchovies either. We’ve seen this before during El Niño.”
It’s quite typical for squid to move on during an El Niño period, according to professor William Gilly, squid expert for Pacific Grove’s Hopkins Marine Station, run by Stanford University.
“We saw a crash in landings in 1997-98 and again in 2009-10 (both El Niño years),” he said. Each time the fishery recovered with the return of the more familiar La Niña.
Gilly points to an anomalous offshore “blob” of warmer water (about 3 degrees above normal) that scientists actually began charting two years ago. This caused squid to move north (in this case), with fishermen landing schools as far away as Sitka, Alaska.
Surging demand in China, Japan, Mexico and Europe has boosted prices and launched a fishing frenzy worth more than $70 million a year. The vanishing act is a concern to fishermen, to wholesalers such as Tringali and to restaurant owners such as Kevin Phillips, who serves more than 1,000 pounds of fresh squid each week out of Abalonetti Bar and Grill on Fisherman’s Wharf.
Abalonetti has built such a renowned reputation as a calamari restaurant that Phillips hires an employee full time to clean and dress squid in a small room behind the restaurant.
“We have not run out yet,” Phillips said. “When Monterey Fish Company runs low, we get the last, then we have a few other sources for West Coast loligo.”
Phillips tries hard to maintain the quality of the squid served at Abalonetti, and isn’t shy about revealing the industry’s dirty little secret: “Many local restaurants, along with most of the country, are using Monterey Bay squid processed in Asia,” he said. “It comes ready to use.”
Much of the local catch — 90 percent of the 230 million pounds landed each season along the California coast — is frozen, shipped to China, unfrozen, processed, refrozen, packaged and sent back to the United States as part of a 12,000-mile journey that leaves one giant carbon footprint. It is genuine California squid, and cheaper and convenient, but the process doesn’t score high in the categories of freshness and sustainability.
When you own a restaurant, and customers create a voracious demand for calamari, some sacrifices must be made — especially during El Niño.
“My first choice is local squid caught and cleaned here,” said Sam Mercurio of Domenico’s on the Wharf. “When squid are running strong Monterey Fish will put aside some tonnage and freeze it for slower years. We also look to the East Coast, but the squid there is bigger, tougher and not as sweet. I’m always looking for the best product, not the cheapest. I’m so picky, if I don’t like what I see I ship it back.”
A fisherman himself, Mercurio relies on his relationship with his comrades to supply his restaurant with seafood.
“We know exactly where to source everything,” he said.
But these days that’s a challenge. It hasn’t been a good run for the entire Monterey Bay fishing industry. Once known as the Sardine Capital of the World, that fishery is currently closed due to low numbers (sardines are known for their wide-ranging “boom-and-bust” population cycles). Warm waters and a resulting neurotoxin undermined most of the Dungeness crab season. And the commercial California king salmon season started slowly May 1, with Monterey Bay boats reporting meager results.
But it’s the elusive squid that has everyone the most concerned.
“We’ve seen this before and have come close to running out,” Phillips said. “Sometimes it’s better to specialize in chicken wings.”
FISHERIES SCIENTISTS TO ADDRESS FLAWS IN PAST FORAGE FISH RESEARCH
WASHINGTON (Saving Seafood) – May 2, 2016 – Dr. Ray Hilborn, a marine biologist and fisheries scientist at the University of Washington, has launched a new initiative aimed at addressing key issues surrounding forage fish science and the impacts of forage fishing on predator species. Dr. Hilborn’s Forage Fish Project is one of several scientific efforts occurring in the next few months to expand the existing body of scientific research on forage fish.Comprised of 14 renowned fisheries scientists from around the globe, the Forage Fish Project held its inaugural conference last month in Hobart, Australia, where it identified shortcomings in the existing forage fish research. Specifically, it found several issues with work produced by the Lenfest Forage Fish Task Force, whose April 2012 report, “Little Fish, Big Impact,” concluded forage fish are vulnerable to overfishing, among other findings.The Forage Fish Project, which includes two members of the Lenfest Task Force, began work to address these flaws, with the goal of producing an accompanying study later this year.In Hobart, Project members found that most of the models used in previous forage fish studies, like the Lenfest Task Force report, left out factors such as the natural variability of forage fish stocks, and the extent of size overlap between fisheries and predators. The group also found multiple indications that the Lenfest study greatly overstated the negative impact of forage fishing on predator species.“Most [food web] models were not built with the explicit intention of evaluating forage fish fisheries, so unsurprisingly many models did not include features of forage fish population biology or food web structure that are relevant for evaluating all fishery impacts,” according to minutes from the Hobart meeting.Two upcoming fishery management workshops will also evaluate forage species on the East and West Coasts of the U.S., the first organized by the Southwest Fisheries Science Center and the Pacific Fishery Management Council. The workshop, which will be held in La Jolla, Calif., from May 2-5, will focus on how to improve stock assessment methods for northern anchovy and other coastal pelagic species. Attendees will evaluate model-based assessment approaches based on routinely assessed pelagic species from around the world, consider non-assessment approaches to estimate fish stocks, and develop recommendations for how the SWFSC should evaluate coastal pelagic fish stocks in the future.A similar forage fish workshop will be held May 16-17 in Portland, Maine. This workshop will focus on Atlantic herring, with the goal of establishing a rule to specify its acceptable biological catch (ABC), the recommended catch level for any given fish species. An effective ABC rule will consider the role of Atlantic herring in the ecosystem, stabilize the fishery at a level that will achieve optimum yield, and address localized depletion in inshore waters.Ultimately, these various forage fish workshops and projects are striving to use the best available science to update previous research and determine sound management practices for forage species.Read the full minutes from the Forage Fish Project conference in Hobart, AustraliaLearn more about the upcoming coastal pelagic species workshop in La Jolla, Calif.Learn more about the upcoming Atlantic herring workshop in Portland, Maine
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University of Washington Study: Pacific "Blob" Likely to Return in Five Years Time
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Copyright © 2016 Seafoodnews.com
SEAFOODNEWS.COM [Peninsula Daily News] By Chris McDaniel - April 22, 2016The so-called “warm blob” that emerged in 2013 and 2014 off the Pacific Northwest and just recently dissipated is a recurring phenomenon — known as a marine heat wave — expected to return in five-year intervals, according to a recently released University of Washington study.Unusually warm oceans can have widespread effects on marine ecosystems, scientists say.Warm patches off the Pacific Northwest from 2013 to 2015, and a couple of years earlier in the Atlantic Ocean, affected everything from sea lions to fish migrations to coastal weather.The study — published in March in the journal Geophysical Research Letters — reviews the history of such features across the Northern Hemisphere.Happen at sea surface “We can think of marine heat waves as the analog to atmospheric heat waves, except they happen at the sea surface and affect marine ecosystems,” said the study’s lead author Hillary Scannell, a doctoral student in oceanography.“There are a lot of similarities.”Co-authors of the study are Andrew Pershing and Katherine Mills at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Michael Alexander at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Andrew Thomas at the University of Maine. The study was funded by the National Science Foundation.Land-based heat waves, Scannell said, are becoming more frequent and more intense due to climate change.Scannell and her collaborators’ work suggests this also might be happening in the north Atlantic and Pacific oceans.Marine heat waves Their study found that marine heat waves have recurred regularly in the past but have become more common since the 1970s, as global warming has become more pronounced.The new paper looks at the frequency of marine heat waves in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific since 1950.Scannell did the work as a student earning a master’s degree at the University of Maine, where she was inspired by the 2012 record-breaking warm waters off New England.“After that big warming event of 2012 we keyed into it and wanted to know how unusual it was,” Scannell said.Warm blob The study also analyzes the “warm blob” that emerged in 2013 and 2014 off the Pacific Northwest.The authors analyzed 65 years of ocean surface temperature observations, from 1950 to 2014, and also looked at how these two recent events stack up.In general, the results show that the larger, more intense and longer-lasting a marine heat wave is, the less frequently it will occur.The study also shows that the two recent events were similar to others seen in the historical record, but got pushed into new territory by the overall warming of the surface oceans.An event like the northwest Atlantic Ocean marine heat wave, in which an area about the size of the U.S. stayed 2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for three months, is likely to naturally occur about every five years in the North Atlantic and northwestern Pacific oceans, and more frequently in the northeast Pacific.The blob in the northeast Pacific covered an even larger area, with surface temperatures 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for 17 months, and is expected from the record to naturally happen about once every five years off the West Coast.El Niño years In the northeast Pacific, the record shows that marine heat waves are more likely during an El Niño year and when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation brings warmer temperatures off the west coast of North America.The blob likely got an extra kick from a possible transition to the favorable phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, as well as from the overall warming of the ocean.“The blob was an unfortunate but excellent example of these events,” Scannell said.“As we go into the uncharted waters of a warming climate, we may expect a greater frequency of these marine heat waves.”Scannell also is a co-author of an earlier study published in February in which the authors define the term “marine heat wave” and specify the duration, temperature change and spatial extent that would meet their criteria. That study was led by researchers in Australia, who were curious about a warm event from 2010 to 2011 in the Indian Ocean.Streamlined definition “We’re working towards a more streamlined definition so we can more easily compare these events when they occur in the future,” Scannell said.Better understanding of marine heat waves could help prepare ocean ecosystems and maritime industries, she said.At the University of Washington, Scannell currently works with Michael McPhaden, an affiliate professor of oceanography and scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration looking at air-sea interactions along the equator and other factors that might create marine heat waves.
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Sardine numbers remain low, 2016 fishing remains closed
Stock assessment finds sardine biomass below cut-off level for directed fishing this yearLast weekend scientists and managers at the Pacific Fishery Management Council weighed the results of a new stock assessment of sardine populations off the West Coast. This new assessment, which was approved and adopted as best available science for management of sardine in the 2016-2017 fishing year, shows that sardine numbers remain low, and remain below the cut-off level where directed fishing for the species could again be allowed.
Based on this information, and the management framework in place for this stock, the Council voted to keep fishing for sardine closed for the second year in a row. As occurred last year, the Council voted to allow for small amounts of sardine taken (up to a total of 8,000 metric tons) as live bait harvest, Tribal harvest, incidental catch in other fisheries (such as mackerel and anchovy), and for scientific research studies.Directed commercial fishing for Pacific sardine is not allowed because the assessment estimated the spawning biomass to be approximately 106,000 metric tons. This is below the cut-off level of 150,000 metric tons, the lowest level at which directed fishing is allowed. This cut-off threshold, included in the Coastal Pelagic Species fishery management plan, is set three times greater than the level at which sardines are considered overfished. This approach limits fishing as the stock declines to help maintain a stable core population of sardines that can jump-start a new cycle of population growth.The stock biomass is the size of the adult sardine population of reproductive age (a year old and older) as measured by offshore surveys conducted by NOAA Fisheries in the last year. The estimate does not include very young fish that are not yet part of the spawning population.There are some indications of stronger sardine reproduction in the last year that could eventually lead to improvements in West Coast sardine numbers, scientists said. For example, surveys in 2015 counted increased numbers of small sardines off central California and similarly found young sardines along the Oregon-California Coast that would not be included in overall stock biomass estimates, and as such, would not be represented in the stock assessment. That indicates that sardines spawned along the West Coast last year and, if the young fish survive, they could add to the adult population in coming years.Although sardines usually spawn off central California in the spring, last year they apparently spawned farther north, off Oregon. That suggests that sardine spawning may have shifted, perhaps in response to unusual ocean conditions such as “the blob,” an expanse of warm water that dominated West Coast waters through much of 2014 and 2015, and the El Nino climate pattern now affecting the region.“The normal timing and distribution of sardine spawning has shifted dramatically as a result of warm water conditions the last three years and we did not catch them in their usual spawning areas at their regular time,” said Dale Sweetnam, deputy director of the Fisheries Resources Division at NOAA Fisheries’ Southwest Fisheries Science Center, which leads sardine surveys and stock assessments on the West Coast.Sardines are known for their wide-ranging “boom-and-bust” population cycles around the world. They have been in decline off the West Coast since a series of cool years from 2010 to 2014 reduced the survival of eggs and very young fish so that few survived to join the adult spawning population. The question now is whether recent warmer conditions may boost the survival of the large numbers of young fish so that more survive long enough to join the adult population.Two annual stock assessment surveys, one currently underway this spring and another one planned for this summer will help to answer that question.“We have had a few years of very unusual conditions on the West Coast, and we’re still learning what that means for sardines and many other species,” Sweetnam said. “Our best sources of information are the surveys that tell where the fish are and how well they’re surviving. Preliminary results this spring suggest that we did have good recruitment last year; however, the magnitude and extent of that recruitment will have to wait until we have completed the surveys.”
Read the original post: http://www.westcoast.fisheries.noaa.gov/
Ocean souring on climate change
“This upwelling is both a blessing and a curse,” Chan said. “The upwelling injects nutrients that make our ocean so productive. That’s why Steinbeck wrote ‘Cannery Row.’ We live in a very special ocean. But the curse is that this upwelling creates low oxygen and low pH. So we’re much closer to any tipping points that could push us past a threshold.”Although the causes and effects of ocean acidification and low oxygen are global, the panel found hopeful news about the potential to deal with it locally.Seagrass beds and kelp forests are more productive than tropical forests, capturing more carbon than other systems on the planet. By restoring marine vegetation, scientists hope to raise pH and oxygen levels in key areas.Curbing marine pollution can also improve ocean chemistry, scientists said. Runoff from farms and lawns, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, feed algal blooms that dump carbon and deplete oxygen from local waters. Cutting back on those pollutants can “put off a potential evil hour when carbon dioxide are so high” that they cause irreparable damage to marine life, Dickson said.Efforts to battle ocean acidification and low oxygen on the West Coast will be test cases for dealing with the problem elsewhere, scientists said“The West Coast will be a harbinger for the types of ocean acidification impacts that will be widely felt across coastal North America in the coming decades,” the report states.Despite the gloomy news, Chan said he’s hopeful that a solution is at hand, noting that bills pending in the California Legislature — Assembly Bill 2139 and Senate Bill 1363 — would study ocean acidity and promote eelgrass restoration.“I’m leaving with an optimistic note, which I tend not to as a scientist, but I think the people who make decisions get it, and are ready to do something,” he said.
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